Jeff Yin
ISSE Coffee Talk
19 Sep 2006
FL1-2133

The dynamics and societal relevance of wind predictions on weekly to
seasonal time scales

A combination of results from the atmospheric dynamics community leads me
to believe that we will soon be able to predict, with at least limited
skill, the statistics of winds on weekly to seasonal time scales.  One
result is the success of linear inverse models in predicting the large
scale atmospheric circulation at lead times of 2 to 3 weeks.  In addition,
there is a well established body of literature showing that the large
scale atmospheric circulation has a strong organizing influence on
extratropical cyclones, also known as frontal storms.  Extreme winds
associated with extratropical cyclones are of interest because the winds
associated with the strongest of these storms can cause billions of
dollars in damage.  In addition, predictions of the full probability
distribution of wind speeds may be of interest to the wind energy
industry.  The purpose of this talk is to share my ideas on the potential
predictability of winds on weekly to seasonal time scales, and to start a
conversation with ISSE scientists about the kinds of societally relevant
problems that could be addressed using this predictability.