Extreme Precipitation: An Application Modeling N-Year Return Levels at
the Station Level

The question under investigation is whether regional climate model
return level estimations be used to obtain return level predictions at
the station level.  To begin, the relationship of grid cell data to the
n-year return levels at point locations is explored.  The tail of the
Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fit to the grid cell
data above a given threshold. This is similar to the Peaks Over
Threshold method.  However, here the method used for parameter
estimation is a Point Process approach, which leads directly to the GEV
parameters.  Different threshold values are tested for model stability.
  The parameter estimates are used to generate n-year return levels.
  The n-year returns at the point (station) locations are estimated the
  same way.  Various models are explored to predict point location n-year
  return from grid cell n-year return. Current results are presented.
  Future work includes plans to test grid-point models on CCSM data.