DTC Verification Workshop 2008
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16-18 April 2008, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Foothills Laboratory, EOL-Atrium, Boulder, Colorado.
The purposes of this meeting are to demonstrate the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) to the community; discuss new state-of-the-art forecast evaluation methods that should be included in future releases; and to discuss user requirements for verification tools and future system components (e.g., database, display, distributed processing capabilities).
Topics that will be considered include:
• Evaluation of Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasts
• Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing -- Including such issues as spatial/temporal dependence, multiple testing, Non-Gaussian Random Variables, bootstrap intervals, Bayesian precision intervals, Observational Error.
• Verification of Extreme or Rare Events
• User-specific verification
• System Components and Architecture
Workshop organizers: Lacey Holland, Barbara Brown, and Eric Gilleland
Agenda for DTC Verification Workshop (2 April 2008)
Updated April 4, 2008.
All sessions will take place in the EOL Atrium in Building 1 of NCAR's Foothills Lab
pdf version of the agenda.Presentation slides and discussion questions (where available) may be obtained in pdf form by clicking on the titles in the web version of the schedule below.
We also had bonus talks by Mike Charles, Martin Goeber, and Ian Jolliffe on the current NCEP verification system, grid-box mean vs. point verification, and rank histograms, respectively.
| Wednesday, April 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Intro, goals, and overview verification in the DTC (Chair: John Halley Gotway) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Spatial verification methods (Chair: Barbara Casati) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts (Chair: Barbara Casati) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Thursday, April 17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts (cont.) (Chair: David Ahijevych) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Verification service (Chair: David Ahijevych) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Inference - Confidence intervals and hypothesis tests (Chair: Jennifer Mahoney) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Friday, April 18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Observation uncertainty (Chair: Eric Gilleland) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Cyclone tracks, extremes and standards of reference (Chair: Lacey Holland) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Summary and discussion | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Venue
The workshop will be held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Foothills Laboratory in the northeast part of Boulder, Colorado. The main meeting sessions will take place in the EOL Atrium in Building 1. The Foothills Campus has an on-site cafeteria where breakfast and lunch may be purchased.
Remote Attendence
For those who wish to attend, but cannot make it to Boulder, we will be employing ReadyTalk. Please email Barbara Brown (bgb " at " ucar "dot" edu) if you would like to attend the meeting in this way.
Lodging
Arrangements have been made with the Best Western Golden Buff Lodge for a special lodging rate of $59.00 per night. The Golden Buff is located at 1725 28th Street, Boulder, CO 80301, and is on the NCAR shuttle route and near to many shopping areas and restaurants. You can make reservations with them at bwgoldenbuff@yahoo.com or at 303-442-7450 (1-800-999-2833). For the DTC verification workshop use Group # 506476; for the Intercomparison Project use Group # 506475 to get the special rate.
Transportation
NCAR provides a regular shuttle service that has a stop across the street from the Golden Buff Lodge, at 28th Street and Canyon Blvd. Shuttle schedules and maps can be found at http://www.fin.ucar.edu/sass/transport/shuttserv.html.
An NCAR van will be doing a special pick-up at the Golden Buff every morning during the workshop to take workshop participants to the NCAR Foothills Lab. The van will pickup at the Golden Buff at 7:55am. Pickup from Foothills will be at:
Wednesday: 7:05pm
Thursday: 5:05pm
Friday: TBD
| Email: Barbara Brown | (bgb | @ucar.edu) |
Please provide complete contact information, and indicate your primary areas of interest for this workshop (e.g., system components; probabilistic forecasts; extremes; uncertainty).
MET SPONSORS
U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Directions to workshop
The workshop will be held at NCAR's Foothills Laboratory in the EOL-Atrium (FL1-2198). Directions to the Foothills Laboratory buildings (and other NCAR buildings) can be found from the following link. [Click for map to the NCAR labs]Directions to the Foothills lab FROM THE NORTH:
- Take the Diagonal Hwy (CO 119) into Boulder,
- When you reach the exit to get back on to the Diagonal, take it, but use the left lane.
- Turn left at the light.
- Turn right immediately at the first light (47th St).
- Turn left on Mitchell Ln (just after Railroad Crossing).
- Follow Mitchell Ln until you reach the three connected buildings at the end. Park.
- Enter through the main entrance (FL2; the middle building).