Refereed Publications

2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024


Towler, E., Done, J. M., Ge, M., Gilleland, E., and Prein, A. F., 2024. Seasonal predictability of the frequency of precipitation-based weather types over the United States. Submitted to Weather and Forecasting.


de Oliveira, M. M. F., J. L. Oliveira, E. Gilleland, and N. F. Ebecken, 2023. Evaluation of trends and analysis of air temperature and wind on the Antarctic Peninsula using extreme value theory. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 155 (4), 3047 - 3070, doi: 10.1007/s00704-023-04753-1.

Brunner, M. I. and E. Gilleland, 2023. Future changes in floods, droughts, and their extents in the Alps: A sensitivity analysis with a non-stationary stochastic streamflow generator. Earth's Future, 12 (4), e2023EF004238, doi: 10.1029/2023EF004238.

Gilleland, E., D. Muñoz-Esparza, and D. D. Turner, 2023. Competing forecast verification: Using the power-divergence statistic for testing the frequency of "better." Weather and Forecasting, 38 (9), 1539 - 1552, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-22-0201.1.


Casati, B., M. Dorninger, C. A. S. Coelho, E. E. Ebert, C. Marsigli, M. P. Mittermaier, and E Gilleland, 2022. The 2020 International Verification Methods Workshop Online: Major outcomes and way forward. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 103 (3), E899 - E910, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0126.1.


Gilleland, E., F. Zwiers, D. Wilks, H. von Storch, B. G. Brown, B. Glahn, S. Mason, D. B. Stephenson, and J. Fieberg, 2021. Significant misinterpretations: What role should statistical hypothesis testing play in the atmospheric sciences? In Prep.

Brunner, M. I. and E. Gilleland, 2021. Complex high- and low-flow networks differ in their spatial correlation characteristics, drivers, and changes. Accepted to Water Resources Research, 57 (9), e2021WR030049, doi: 10.1029/2021WR030049.

Brunner, M. I., E. Gilleland, and A. W. Wood, 2021. Space-time dependence of compound hot-dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator. Earth System Dynamics, 12 (2), 621 - 634, doi: 10.5194/esd-12-621-2021.

de Oliveira, M. M. F., J. L. F. de Oliveira, P. J F., Fernandes, P. J. F., E. Gilleland, and N. F. F. Ebecken, 2021. Extreme climate characteristics near the coastline of the southeast region of Brazil in the last 40 years. Theoritcal and Applied Climatology, 146, 657 - 674, doi: 10.1007/s00704-021-03711-z.

Brunner, M. I., D. L. Swain, R. R., Wood, F., Willkofer, J.M., Done, E. Gilleland, and R. Ludwig, 2021. An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (173), doi: 10.1038/s43247-021-00248-x.

Marsigli, C., E. Ebert, R. Ashrit, B. Casati, J. Chen, C. A. S. Coelho, M. Dorninger, E. Gilleland, T. Haiden, S. Landman, and M. Mittermaier, 2021. Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21 (4), 1297 - 1312, doi: 10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021.

Brunner, M. I., D. L. Swain, E. Gilleland, and A. W. Wood, 2021. Increasing importance of temperature as a driver of streamflow drought spatial extent. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (2), 024038, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd2f0.

Griffin, S. M., J. A. Otkin, S. E. Nebuda, T. L. Jensen, P. S. Skinner, E. Gilleland, T. A. Supinie, and M. Xue, 2021. Evaluating the Impact of Planetary Boundary Layer, Land Surface Model, and Microphysics Parameterization Schemes on Upper-level Cloud Objects in Simulated GOES-16 Brightness Temperatures. JGR-Atmospheres, 126 (15), e2021JD034709, doi: 10.1029/2021JD034709.

Brown, B. G., T. G. Jensen, J. Halley Gotway, R. Bullock, E. Gilleland, T. Fowler, K. Newman, D. Adriaansen, L. Blank, T. Burek, M. Harrold, T. Hertneky, C. Kalb, P. Kucera, L. Nance, and J. Wolff, 2021. The Model Evaluation Tools (MET): More than a decade of community-supported forecast verification. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 102 (4), E782 - E807, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0093.1.

Jha, S., M. Goyal, B. B. Gupta, C.-H. Hsu, E. Gilleland, and J. Das, 2021. A methodological framework for extreme climate risk assessment integrating satellite and location based datasets in Intelligent Systems. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 37 (12), 10268 - 10288, doi: 10.1002/int.22475.

Gilleland, E., 2021. Novel measures for summarizing high-resolution forecast performance. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 7 (1), 13 - 34, doi: 10.5194/ascmo-7-13-2021.


Brunner, M. I., S. M. Papalexiou, M. Clark, and E. Gilleland, 2020. How probable is widespread flooding in the United States? Water Resources Research, 56 (10), e2020WR028096, doi: 10.1029/2020WR028096.

North, J., Z. Stanley, W. Kleiber, W. Deierling, E. Gilleland and M. Steiner, 2020. A statistical approach to fast nowcasting of lightning potential fields. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6, 79 - 90, doi: 10.5194/ascmo-6-79-2020.

Brunner, M. I., E. Gilleland, A. W. Wood, D. L. Swain, and M. Clark, 2020. Spatial dependence of floods shaped by spatiotemporal variations in meteorological and land-surface processes. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13), e2020GL088000, doi: 10.1029/2020GL088000.

Brunner, M. I. and E. Gilleland, 2020. Stochastic simulation of streamflow and spatial extremes: a continuous, wavelet-based approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3967 - 3982, doi: 10.5194/hess-2019-658.

Gilleland, E., 2020. Bootstrap methods for statistical inference. Part I: Comparative forecast verification for continuous variables. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 37 (11), 2117 - 2134, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0069.1.

Gilleland, E., 2020. Bootstrap methods for statistical inference. Part II: Extreme-value analysis. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 37 (11), 2135 - 2144, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0070.1.

Towler, E., D. Llewellyn, A. Prein, and E. Gilleland, 2020. Extreme-value analysis for the characterization of extremes in water resources: A generalized workflow and case study on New Mexico monsoon precipitation. Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, 100260, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100260.

Gilleland, E., G. Skok, B. G. Brown, B. Casati, M. Dorninger, M. P. Mittermaier, N. Roberts, and L. J. Wilson, 2020. A novel set of verification test fields with application to distance measures. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148 (4), 1653 - 1673, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0256.1.

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Tye, M. R., S. E. Haupt, E. Gilleland, C. Kalb, and T. Jensen, 2019. Assessing the evidence for weather regimes governing solar power generation in Kuwait. Energies, 12, 4409. doi:10.3390/en12234409.

Newman, A. J., M. P. Clark, R. J. Longman, E. Gilleland, T. W. Giambelluca, and J. R. Arnold, 2019. Use of daily station observations to produce high-resolution gridded probabilistic precipitation and temperature time series for the Hawaiian Islands. J. Hydrometeorology, 20 (3), 509 - 529, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0113.1.

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Abatan, A. A., W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. M. Ammann, L. Kaatz, B. G. Brown, L. Buja, R. G. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland and J. Halley Gotway, 2018. Statistics of Multi-year Droughts from the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE). International Journal of Climatology, 38 (8), 3405 - 3420, doi: 10.1002/joc.5512.

Dorninger, M., E. Gilleland, B. Casati, M. P. Mittermaier, E. E. Ebert, B. G. Brown, and L. J. Wilson, 2018. Mesoscale Verification Inter-Comparison over Complex Terrain. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 99 (9), 1887 - 1906, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0164.1.

Gilleland, E., A. S. Hering, T. L. Fowler, and B. G. Brown, 2018. Testing the tests: What are the impacts of incorrect assumptions when applying confidence intervals or hypothesis tests to compare competing forecasts? Mon. Wea. Rev., 146 (6), 1685 - 1703, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0295.1; NOTE: Footnote 1 in the appendix had an error, which was fixed on 16 August 2018.

Fix, M., D. S. Cooley, A. Hodzic, E. Gilleland, B. T. Russell, W. C. Porter, and G. G. Pfister, 2018. Observed and predicted sensitivities of high and extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in the US (1996-2005). Atmospheric Environment, 176, 292 - 300, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.12.036.

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Abatan, A. A., W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. M. Ammann, B. G. Brown, L. Buja, R. G. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, J. Halley Gotway, and L. Kaatz, 2017. Multi-year droughts and pluvials over upper Colorado River basin and associated circulations. J. Hydrometeorology, 18, 799 - 818, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0125.1.

Ekström, M. and Gilleland, E., 2017. Assessing convection permitting resolutions of WRF for the purpose of water resource impact assessment and vulnerability work; a southeast Australian case study. Water Resour. Res., 53 (1), 726 - 743, doi: 10.1002/2016WR019545.

Gilleland, E., R. W. Katz, and P. Naveau, 2017. Quantifying the risk of extreme events under climate change. Chance, 30 (4), 30 - 36, doi: 10.1080/09332480.2017.1406757.

Gilleland, E., 2017. A new characterization in the spatial verification framework for false alarms, misses, and overall patterns. Weather Forecast., 32 (1), 187 - 198, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0134.1.

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Gilleland, E., M. Bukovsky, C. L. Williams, S. McGinnis, C. M. Ammann, B. G. Brown, and L. O. Mearns, 2016. Evaluating NARCCAP model performance for frequencies of severe-storm environments. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2 (2), 137--153, doi: 10.5194/ascmo-2-137-2016.

Gilleland, E. and R. W. Katz, 2016. extRemes 2.0: An Extreme Value Analysis Package in R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72 (8), 1 - 39, doi: 10.18637/jss.v072.i08.

Shen, L., L. J. Mickley, and E. Gilleland, 2016. Impact of increasing heatwaves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multi-model analysis using extreme value theory. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (8), 4017 - 4025, doi: 10.1002/2016GL068432.

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Bador, M., P. Naveau, E. Gilleland, M. Sànchez, and T. Arivelo, 2015. Spatial clustering of summer temperature maxima from the CNRM-CM5 climate model ensembles and E-OBS over Europe. J. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 17 - 24, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.05.003.

Gilleland, E. and G. Roux, 2015. A New Approach to Testing Forecast Predictive Accuracy. Meteorol. Appl., 22 (3), 534 - 543, doi: 10.1002/met.1485.

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Cheng, L., A. AghaKouchak, E. Gilleland, and R. W. Katz, 2014. Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate. Climatic Change, 127 (2), 353 - 369, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1254-5.

Cheng, L., E. Gilleland, M. J. Heaton, and A. AghaKouchak, 2014. Empirical Bayes estimation for the conditional extreme value model. Stat, 3 (1) 391 - 406, doi: 10.1002/sta4.71.

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Gilleland, E., 2013. Testing competing precipitation forecasts accurately and efficiently: The spatial prediction comparison test. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, (1), 340 - 355, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00155.1.

Gilleland, E., B. G. Brown, and C. M. Ammann, 2013. Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather. Environmetrics, 24 (6), 418 - 432, doi: 10.1002/env.2234.

Gilleland, E., M. Ribatet and A. G. Stephenson, 2013. A software review for extreme value analysis. Extremes, 16 (1), 103 - 119, doi: 10.1007/s10687-012-0155-0 (available online at

Mannshardt, E. and E. Gilleland, 2013. Extremes of severe storm environments under a changing climate. American Journal of Climate Change, 2 (3A), 47 - 61, doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2013.23A005.

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de Oliveira, M.M.F., N.F.F. Ebecken, J.L.F. de Oliveira and E. Gilleland, 2011. Generalized extreme wind speed distributions in South America over the Atlantic Ocean region, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 104, (3 - 4), 377 - 385, doi: 10.1007/s00704-010-0350-3.

Gilleland, E., 2011. Spatial Forecast Verification: Baddeley's Delta Metric Applied to the ICP Test Cases. Weather Forecast., 26 (3), 409 - 415, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05061.1.

Gilleland, E. and Katz, R.W., 2011. New software to analyze how extremes change over time. Eos, 11 January, 92 (2), 13 - 14, doi: 10.1029/2011EO020001.

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Gilleland, E., D.A. Ahijevych, B.G. Brown and E.E. Ebert, 2010. Verifying forecasts spatially. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91 (10), 1365 - 1373, doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2819.1.

Gilleland, E., J. Lindström, and F. Lindgren, 2010. Analyzing the image warp forecast verification method on precipitation fields from the ICP. Weather Forecast., 25 (4), 1249 - 1262, doi: 10.1175/2010WAF2222365.1.

Heaton, M.J., M. Katzfuss, S. Ramachandar, K. Pedings, E. Gilleland, E. Mannshardt-Shamseldin, and R.L. Smith, 2010. Spatio-Temporal Models for Large-scale Indicators of Extreme Weather. Environmetrics, 22, 294 - 303, doi: 10.1002/env.1050.

Towler, E., B. Rajagopalan, E. Gilleland, R.S. Summers, D. Yates, and R.W. Katz, 2010. Modeling hydrologic and water quality extremes in a changing climate. Water Resources Research, 46, W11504, doi: 10.1029/2009WR008876.

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Abeysirigunawardena, D.S., E. Gilleland, D. Bronaugh, 2009. Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the inner-south-coast of British Columbia Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 47 (1), 41 - 61, doi: 10.3137/AO1003.2009.

Ahijevych, D., E. Gilleland, B.G. Brown, and E.E. Ebert, 2009. Application of spatial verification methods to idealized and NWP gridded precipitation forecasts. Weather Forecast., 24 (6), 1485 - 1497, doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222298.1.

Gilleland, E., D. Ahijevych, B.G. Brown, B. Casati, and E.E. Ebert, 2009. Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods. Weather Forecast., 24, 1416 - 1430, doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222269.1.

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Gilleland, E., T.C.M. Lee, J. Halley Gotway, R.G. Bullock, and B.G. Brown, 2008. Computationally efficient spatial forecast verification using Baddeley's Δ image metric. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136 (5), 1747 - 1757, doi: 10.1175/2007MWR2274.1.

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Gilleland, E. and T.L. Fowler, 2006. Network design for verification of ceiling and visibility forecasts. Environmetrics, 17 (6), 575 - 589, doi: 10.1002/env.765.

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Gilleland, E. and D.W. Nychka, 2005. Statistical models for monitoring and regulating ground-level ozone. Environmetrics, 16, 535 - 546, doi: 10.1002/env.720.

Stephenson, A. and E. Gilleland, 2005. Software for the Analysis of Extreme Events: The Current State and Future Directions. Extremes, 8, 87 - 109, doi: 10.1007/s10687-006-7962-0.

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Technical Notes


Gilleland, E. and Katz, R. W., 2016: in2extremes: Into the R Package extremes - Extreme Value Analysis for Weather and Climate Applications. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-523+STR, 102 pp., doi: 10.5065/D65T3HP2.


Dorninger, M., M. P. Mittermaier, E. Gilleland, E. E. Ebert, B. G. Brown, and L. J. Wilson, 2013: MesoVICT: Mesoscale Verification Inter-Comparison over Complex Terrain. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-505+STR, 23 pp, doi: 10.5065/D6416V21.

Gilleland, E., 2013. Two-dimensional kernel smoothing: Using the R package smoothie. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-502+STR, 17pp.


Gilleland, E., 2010. Confidence intervals for forecast verification. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-479+STR, 71pp.

Gilleland, E., L. Chen, M. DePersio, G. Do, K. Eilertson, Y. Jin, E.L. Kang, F. Lindgren, J. Lindström, R.L. Smith, and C. Xia, 2010. Spatial Forecast Verification: Image Warping. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-482+STR, 23pp.

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Book Chapters


Gilleland, E., F. Pappenberger, B. G. Brown, E. E. Ebert, and D. Richardson, 2016. Verification of meteorological forecasts for hydrological applications. In Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, Edts. Duan, Q., F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, A. Wood, H. L. Cloke, and J. C. Schaake, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, doi: doi:10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_4-1.


Gilleland, E., 2016. Computing Software. Chapter 25 In Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications. Edts. Dipak K. Dey and Jun Yan, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, U.S.A., pp. 505 - 515.

Gilleland, E. and Ribatet, M., 2015. Reinsurance and extremal events. In: Computational Actuarial Science with R. Ed. A. Charpentier, Chapman & Hall/CRC the R series, Boca Raton, Florida, U.S.A., pp. 257 - 286.


Brown, B.G., Gilleland, E. and Ebert, E.E., 2012. Forecasts of spatial fields. pp. 95 - 117, Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd edition. Edts. IT Jolliffe and DB Stephenson, Wiley, Chichester, West Sussex, UK, 274 pp.


Gilleland, E., D.W. Nychka, and U. Schneider, 2006. Spatial models for the distribution of extremes, Hierarchical modelling for the Environmental Sciences: statistical methods and applications, Edts. JS Clark and A Gelfand. Oxford University Press, New York pp. 170 - 183. ISBN 0-19-8569671

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Edited Books

Machine Learning and Data Mining Approaches to Climate Science, 2015. Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Climate Informatics. Editors: Lakshmanan, V., Gilleland, E., McGovern, A., Tingley, M. (Eds.), Springer International Publishing, 252 pp., ISBN 978-3-319-17220-0, doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-17220-0.

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Other Publications

Papers in this "Other Publications" section are fairly refined drafts published in some non-refereed venue; typically conference preprints.


Ahijevych, D.A., E. Gilleland, B.G. Brown, E.E. Ebert, L. Holland, and C. Davis, 2008. Intercomparison of spatial verification methods. 88th Annual American Meteorological Society (AMS) meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana. 9.1 Probability/Statistics conference.

Gilleland, E., M. Pocernich, H.E. Brooks, B.G. Brown, and P. Marsh, 2008. Large-scale indicators for severe weather. Proceedings of the American Statistical Association (ASA) Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), 3-7 August 2008, Denver, Colorado. (OpenSky Citable URL,


Gilleland, E. and R.W. Katz. "Analyzing seasonal to interannual extreme weather and climate variability with the extremes toolkit (extRemes)", 18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 86th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting, 29 January - 2 February, 2006, Atlanta, Georgia. P2.15 (contributed poster). (OpenSky Citable URL,


Gilleland, E., 2004. Optimizing METAR Network Design for Verification of Cloud Ceiling Height and Visibility Forecasts, conference proceedings (preprint) for the 2004 joint meeting of The Fifteenth Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society and The Sixth International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 28 June - 1 July, 2004, Portland, ME.

Gilleland, E., 2004. 2.5 Improving forecast verification through network design, proceedings of the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 84th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), 10 - 15 January, 2004, Seattle, WA.

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From the Desk

Papers in this "From the Desk" section are rough but ready (or sort of ready) papers that may (or may not) at some point be completed into a paper or technical note.

Gilleland, E., 2022. Comparing spatial fields with SpatialVx: Spatial forecast verification in R. doi: 10.5065/4px3-5a05.

Gilleland, E., 2021. Spatial dissimilarity measures for comparing spatial fields (OpenSky Citable URL,

Gilleland, E., 2019. A quick guide to competitive forecast verification testing (OpenSky Citable URL,

Gilleland, E., 2010. Confidence intervals for forecast verification: Practical considerations, (OpenSky Citable URL,

Gilleland, E. and D.W. Nychka, 2009. Spatial forecast verification: Thin-plate splines. 18 June 2009. (OpenSky Citable URL,

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