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Jonathan Vigh, Ph.D.

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UCAR Cloud Risk Project

Project Scientist I
Joint Numerical Testbed
Phone: (303) 497-8205
Email: jvigh@ucar.edu

Jonathan Vigh's CV (updated 02 December 2022)
Jonathan Vigh's Web of Science Research Profile
Jonathan Vigh's Google Scholar Citations
Jonathan Vigh's ORCID profile
Jonathan Vigh's ResearchGate profile

Latest news

The METplus Team receives the 2022 UCAR Technical Achievement Award

Current Projects

(updated 30 November 2022)

HurricaneRiskCalculator
Forecaster Support Products for Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure from Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations - NOAA Weather Program Office
New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification - NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
Model Evaluation Tools
Tropical Cyclone Data Project
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project
Climate Risk Management engine (CRMe)

Current Job Duties

(updated 30 November 2022)

Dr. Vigh leads several hurricane-related projects within RAL and serves as a support scientist on several other projects. He is the leader of the WxRisk project, which is building personalized weather risk tools such as the HurricaneRiskCalculator web app. Dr. Vigh is also the Principal Investigator (PI) of a new joint project with Colorado State University and the University of Miami which is implementing forecast support products of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure from aircraft reconnaissance observations. Dr. Vigh is serving in the project manager role for another project which is implementing TC diagnostics in the METplus software package. Dr. Vigh is also working in the support scientist role to develop an evaluation system for space weather using METplus.

In addition to these projects, Dr. Vigh is the lead developer of the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (TCGP), which provides real-time model guidance for TCs, and the Climate Risk Management Engine (CRMe), which supports climate science and risk applications. Dr. Vigh also writes research papers, develops funding proposals, and participates in service activities. He is also collaborates internationally to improve TC data sharing.

Professional Interests

Jonathan Vigh's main research interests include tropical cyclones and risk communication. He has studied the problem of eye formation in hurricanes and other geophysical vortices to learn how the eye/eyewall structure impacts the subsequent intensification of the storm. He has also done extensive work to construct several new aircraft-based data sets to further investigate structure and intensity changes in tropical cyclones, with a particular focus on the radius of maximum winds (RMW). He is working to use enembles to better predict TC RI. Finally, he is working to improve hazard and risk communication for TCs.

Education

2000 B.S., Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA
2004 M.S., Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
2010 Ph.D. Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Recent Publications (last 3 years)

Hendricks, E. A., J. L. Vigh, and C. M. Rozoff, 2021: Forced, balanced, axisymmetric shallow water model for understanding short-term tropical cyclone intensity and wind structure changes. Atmosphere, 12(10), 1308, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101308.
Brown, B., T. Jensen, J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, E. Gilleland, T. Fowler, K. Newman, D. Adriaansen, L. Blank, T. Burek, M. Harrold, T. Hertneky, C. Kalb, P. Kucera, L. Nance, J. Opatz, J. Vigh, and J. Wolff, 2021: The Model Evaluation Tools (MET): More than a decade of community-supported forecast verification. Bull. Atmos. Meteor. Soc.,102(4), E782-E807, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0093.1. (pdf file)
Ruiz-Salcines, P., C. M. Appendini, P. Salles, W. Rey, J. L. Vigh, 2021: On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change. Nat. Hazards, 105, 431-459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04318-9.
Lin, J., K. Emanuel, and J. L. Vigh, 2020: Forecasts of hurricanes using large-ensemble outputs. Wea. Forecast., 35(5), 1713-1731, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0255.1. (pdf file)
Izaguirre, I. J. Losado, C. P. Camus, J. L. Vigh, and V. Stenek, 2020: Climate change risk on global ports operations. Nat. Clim. Chang., 11, 14-20. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00937-z.
Y. Ren, J. A. Zhang, J. L. Vigh, P. Zhu, H. Liu, X. Wang, J. B. Wadler, 2020: An observational study of the symmetric boundary layer structure and tropical cyclone intensity. Atmosphere, 11, 158, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020158. (pdf file)

* Please note that the AMS Copyright Notice applies to the articles that have been published in any of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) publication. Permission to place a copy of these works on this server has been provided by the American Meteorological Society. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

Products

Vigh, J. L., D. T. Hahn, D. J. Smith, J. Lin, A. Bol, D. O. Prevatt, D. B. Roueche, J. M. Collins, B. R. Ellingwood, G. Nain, J. E. Rovins, K. Emanuel, T. Ross-Lazarov, P. Mozumder, S. F. Pilkington, S. J. Weaver, G. Wong-Parodi, L. Myers, A. A. Merdjanoff, P. A. Kucera, C. Wang, T. Kloetzke, S. Joslyn, E. A. Holland, B. Brown, Y. P. Sheng, F. Tormos-Aponte, C. M. Appendini Albrechtsen, R. G. Goldhammer, H. Greatrex, M. Moulton, J. M. Done, E. A. Hendricks, C. M. Rozoff, and J. J. Alland, 2021: The HurricaneRiskCalculator® web app (version 2.5): Personalizing hurricane risk information by location and structural vulnerability. Weather Risk Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. [Available online at: https://wxrisk.io.]
Vigh, J. L., C. M. Rozoff, E. A. Hendricks, D. Hahn, 2021: The Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project website (version 2.5): Real-time data and visualizations of tropical cyclone forecast guidance and observations. Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. [Available online at: https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu.]

Datasets

Vigh, J. L., N. M. Dorst, C. L. Williams, D. P. Stern, E. W. Uhlhorn, B. W. Klotz, J. Martinez, H. E. Willoughby, F. D. Marks, Jr., D. R. Chavas, 2021: FLIGHT+: The Extended Flight Level Dataset for Tropical Cyclones (Version 1.3). Tropical Cyclone Data Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. [Available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6WS8R93.]
Vigh, J. L., E. Gilleland, C. L. Williams, D. R. Chavas, N. M. Dorst, 2018: TC-OBS: The Tropical Cyclone Observations-Based Structure Database (Version 0.42, an alpha-level release). Tropical Cyclone Data Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. [Available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6BC.]
Chavas, D. R. and J. L. Vigh, 2015: QSCAT-R: The QuikSCAT Tropical Cyclone Radial Structure Dataset (Version 1.0). Tropical Cyclone Data Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. [Available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D65B00J3.]
Vigh, J. L., 2015: VDM+: The Enhanced Vortex Data Message Dataset (Version 1.100). Tropical Cyclone Data Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. [Available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D61Z42GH.]

Projects and Research

Jump Links

Past Projects

An Improved Historical Database for Tropical Cyclone Wind Risk Modeling
International Finance Corporation (IFC) Climate Risk Screening Tools
AECOM BeSecure Project for Water Security in the Philippines
Advanced Verification for Earth System Modeling (EaSM2)
WorldBank Climate Change Knowledge Portal
National Climate Predictions & Projections Platform (NCPP)
USDA Agriculture Project
Development of an HWRF diagnostics module to evaluate intensity and structure using synthetic flight paths through tropical cyclones (DTC Visitor Program)
Large-scale Diagnostics of the Basin-scale HWRF Model

Current Projects

The HurricaneRiskCalculator(TM)

The goal of the HurricaneRiskCalculator(TM) is to provide a localized and personalized assessment of the risks posed by hurricane winds and then to translate this into a form that people can use to make informed decisions about preparation and evacuation. This project is building a cloud-based data and content delivery infrastructure to support a wide range of mobile apps built around the new probabilistic risk framework of the HurricaneRiskCalculator(TM).

Back around 2012-2014, I wrote several unsuccessful proposals on ideas related to the HurricaneRiskCalculator(TM) and pitched the idea of probabilistic risk frameworks to higher-ups at my organization. In 2017, I wrote a small proposal to the Research Application Laboratory Opportunity Fund and was awarded a small proposal (about 320 hours of funded time). I used this time to hone and develop the HurricaneRiskCalcalator(TM) concept and to build linkages with the structural engineering community. In 2019, I wrote a larger internal proposal to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) President's Strategic Initiative Fund. This proposal was awarded ($120,000 + $15,357 in lab co-sponsorship) to take this idea to the next level. The project is building a strategic cloud-based data and content delivery infrastucture to support hurricane mobile apps.

Project website: wxrisk.ucar.edu

Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project

I initiated this project in 2011 to provide a global platform for the real-time collection and dissemination of tropical cyclone guidance aids. Used by forecasters and non-specialists alike, this site provides clear and easy-to-read plots of the track and intensity forecasts of the various global and regional hurricane models and other forecast aids. In the future, the site will also serve as a platform for the exchange and display of aircraft-based structure information and other types of data.

Project website: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/

Past Projects

Development of an HWRF diagnostics module to evaluate intensity and structure using synthetic flight paths through tropical cyclones

This funded work involves implementing synthetic flight profiles in the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) model by taking aircraft flight paths from real storms, transforming these flight paths into a frame relative to the moving center of HWRF's simulated storm, and then comparing the resulting synthetic wind profiles to the observed wind structure from the real storm. By doing this, an "apples-to-apples" comparison can be made between the wind structures of the simulated and real storms. This advanced diagnostics activity should lead to insight on how to improve HWRF's structure and intensity predictions. Jonathan is the Principal Investigator and main developer in this project. Collaborating institutions include the Development Testbed Center, the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, and the NOAA Environmental Modeling Center.

This work is funded by the DTC Visitor Program.

National Climate Predictions & Projections Platform (NCPP)

Overview

NCPP is a large multi-agency project whose goal is to advance the provision of regional and local information about the evolving climate and to accelerate its use in adaptation planning and decision making. The NCPP team includes members from NOAA, NCAR, the University of Colorado, the University of Michigan, and other institutions.

I have been working in a support role under Caspar Ammann (NCAR PI) since May 2013. My contribution thus far has been the creation of an evaluation engine to compute various metrics and indices across a large set of downscaled regional climate data sets.

Technical Details

To build the evaluation engine, I created a 20,000+ line code system in NCAR Command Language (NCL). Using a highly efficient and integrated workflow, this code set: (a) restructures each of the downscaled data sets over the monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales; (b) computes base statistics for a variety of metrics and indices; (c) computes climatological period statistics; (d) and finally, generates a unique evaluation plot for each metric or index combination for the designated period time frame, along with an associated self-contained NetCDF data file and XML metadata file. Metrics computed include the mean, median, standard deviation, 5th, 10th, 25th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles. Various groups of indices are also computed including the ETCCDI climate extremes indices, the BioClim indices, and additional health-related indices. Comparison datasets are also generated to allow users to compare the various downscaled regional climate model data to several observational standards, which include the Maurer BCCA dataset and the Daymet 2.1 dataset. Altogether, 159,000 plots datasets have been created.

Project website: National Climate Predictions & Projections Platform (NCPP)

View evaluation and comparison data on the NCPP data portal: https://earthsystemcog.org/search/ncpp/

An Improved Historical Database for Tropical Cyclone Wind Risk Modeling

This project developed a new historical database of tropical cyclone wind and size parameters. Unlike other historical databases, such as the National Hurricane Center's Hurricane Database (HURDAT2), this new database uses objective methods to provide time-dependent error bounds on the estimated wind parameters. The goal is to provide the highest quality database possible for parametric wind modeling applications. Such models are used by the (re)insurance industry to simulate wind risk from tropical cyclones.

As the project PI, I built several source datasets, including the Enhanced Vortex Data Message Dataset (VDM+) and the Extended Flight Level Dataset. Another project team member, Daniel Chavas, is updating his TC QuikSCAT Dataset of outer wind parameters. From these three datasets, I build the new historical database with time-dependent uncertainty bounds. In possible future follow-on work, we will examine how well these predict historic landfall losses.

This project was funded by the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI2.0).

Project website: http://verif.rap.ucar.edu/tcdata/

USDA Agriculture Project

I began working on this NCAR-led project in Fall 2013 under the leadership of Caspar Ammann. I am working on implementing the computation of return periods and other ensemble and extreme value analysis techniques to examine the effects of changing climate on agriculture and food security.

Large-scale Diagnostics of the Basin-scale HWRF Model

Overview

In August 2012, I wrapped up an 8-month diagnostics effort for the DTC's Hurricane Task. He started this task by making an integrative assessment of known and perceived problems with the HWRF model. Then he formulated a menu of possible diagnostics approaches. With input from NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), the top-priority task was selected to examine the climatology of large-scale errors in the basin-scale HWRF model (bHWRF). By comparing retrospective bHWRF forecasts against 0-hr forecast fields from retrospective runs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, a grid-point climatology of the spatial structure of errors and biases was constructed. Numerous systematic biases have been discovered, leading to recommendations for ways to improve the bHWRF.

Technical Details

Jonathan crafted a 17,000 line integrated code system in NCAR Command Language (NCL) to accomplish this task. This set of NCL scripts manages the workflow of staging the model data sets from the mass stores on Jet, Zeus, and Bluefire, transferring data onto disk on Zeus, subsetting and interpolating model data onto a common grid, converting to compressed netCDF4, computing paired differences of numerous 3D variables at each grid-point, accumulating these model errors for each month and the entire season, and creating output plots for evaluation and analysis. This tera-scale data analysis effort has been implemented on the NESCC Zeus Supercomputer using parallel batch processing allowing for high rates of throughput. Altogether, approximately 60 TB of data have been processed, resulting in over 5000 plots of the mean error (bias), RMS error, and de-biased RMS error.

Current Research Areas

Formation of the hurricane eye

Fundamental controls of the radius of maximum wind

Relationship between intensification and contraction during the primary intensification phase

Past Research Areas

Kilo-ensemble forecasting of Atlantic tropical cyclones

Funding

I work on a variety of projects funded by various grants at NCAR. This page generally only lists those for which I am the Principal Investigator (PI) or Co-PI.

Current Funding Sources

Energy Inequality in the Wake of Disasters: Building Optimal Disaster Resource Allocation Approaches through Assessments of Social Vulnerability

Role: NCAR Supporting Scientist (PI: Fernando Tormos-Aponte)
Funding source: NCAR Early Career Faculty Innovators Program (National Science Foundation)
Amount: $
Date of award:
Performance period: 01 September 2021 - 31 August 2023

Strategic Development of a Cloud-Based Data Infrastructure for Hurricane Mobile Apps

Role: Principal Investigator
Funding source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) President's Strategic Initiative Fund (PSIF)
Funding opportunity title: PSIF Scientific Research Award (FY2019)
Amount: $120,000
Date of award: 03 June 2019
Performance period: 06 June 2019 - 31 May 2020

New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification

Role: Co-Principal Investigator (NCAR PI; Dr. Kerry Emanuel, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology - MIT, is overall PI)
Funding source: NWS Office of Science and Technology (OST) -- NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (via a subaward from MIT)
Funding opportunity title: Round 3 of Research to Operations Initiative: NGGPS and HFIP
Funding opportunity number: NOAA-NWS-NWSPO-2018-2005325
Award Number: NA18NWS4680058
Amount: $339,571 (NCAR budget: $222,922)
Date of subaward: 07 October 2018
Performance period: 01 September 2018 - 31 August 2020

Past Funding Sources

Development Toward a Tropical Cyclone Risk Calculator

Role: Principal Investigator
Funding entity: RAL Opportunities Fund (internal)
Amount: $29,241
Date of award: 05 May 2017
Performance period: 01 June 2017 - 31 May 2018

Development of an Improved Database of Tropical Cyclone Size Parameters

Role: Principal Investigator
Funding entity: Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI2.0), Bermuda Institute of Ocean Science (BIOS)
Amount: $79,964
Date of award: ~15 Jul 2013
Performance period: 1 Oct 2013 – 31 Dec 2015
Project website: http://verif.rap.ucar.edu/tcdata/

Development of an HWRF diagnostics module to evaluate intensity and structure using synthetic flight paths through tropical cyclones

Role: Principal Investigator
Funding entity: Development Testbed Center Visitor Program
Amount: $35,929
Date of award: 17 Jul 2012
Performance period: 1 Aug 2012 – 31 Jul 2013
Final report (pdf file)

Publications

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Refereed Publications

Hendricks, E. A., J. L. Vigh, and C. M. Rozoff, 2021: Forced, balanced, axisymmetric shallow water model for understanding short-term tropical cyclone intensity and wind structure changes. Atmosphere, 12(10), 1308, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101308.
Brown, B., T. Jensen, J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, E. Gilleland, T. Fowler, K. Newman, D. Adriaansen, L. Blank, T. Burek, M. Harrold, T. Hertneky, C. Kalb, P. Kucera, L. Nance, J. Opatz, J. Vigh, and J. Wolff, 2021: The Model Evaluation Tools (MET): More than a decade of community-supported forecast verification. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0093.1. (pdf file)
Ruiz-Salcines, P., C. M. Appendini, P. Salles, W. Rey, J. L. Vigh, 2021: On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change. Nat. Hazards, 105, 431-459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04318-9.
Lin, J., K. Emanuel, and J. L. Vigh, 2020: Forecasts of hurricanes using large-ensemble outputs. Wea. Forecast., 35(5), 1713-1731, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0255.1. (pdf file)
Izaguirre, I. J. Losado, C. P. Camus, J. L. Vigh, and V. Stenek, 2020: Climate change risk on global ports operations. Nat. Clim. Chang., 11, 14-20. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00937-z.
Y. Ren, J. A. Zhang, J. L. Vigh, P. Zhu, H. Liu, X. Wang, J. B. Wadler, 2020: An observational study of the symmetric boundary layer structure and tropical cyclone intensity. Atmosphere, 11, 158, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020158. (pdf file)
Hendricks, E. A., S. A. Braun, J. L. Vigh, and J. B. Courtney, 2019: A summary of research advances on tropical cyclone intensity change from 2014-2018. Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev., 8(4), 219-225, https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR04.02. (pdf file)
Stevenson, S. N., K. L. Corbosiero, M. DeMaria, and J. L. Vigh, 2018: A 10-year survey of tropical cyclone inner-core lightning bursts and their relationship to intensity change. Wea. Forecasting, 33, 23-36, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0096.1. (pdf file)
Martinez, J., M. M. Bell, J. L. Vigh, R. F. Rogers, 2017: Examination of tropical cyclone structure and intensification with the FLIGHT+ Dataset from 1999 to 2012. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 4401-4421, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0011.1. (pdf file)
Guentchev, G. S., R. B. Rood, C. M. Ammann, J. J. Barsugli, K. Ebi, V. Berrocal, M. S. O'Neil, C. J. Gronlund, J. L. Vigh, B. Koziol, L. Cinquini, 2016: Evaluating the appropriateness of downscaled climate information for projecting risks of Salmonella. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 13, 267, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030267. (pdf file)
Stern, D. P., J. Vigh, D. Nolan, and F. Zhang, 2015: Revisiting the relationship between eyewall contraction and intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 1283-1306, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0261.1. (pdf file)
Frisius, T., D. Schönemann, and J. Vigh, 2013: The impact of gradient wind imbalance on potential intensity of tropical cyclones in an unbalanced slab boundary layer model. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1874-1890, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0160.1. (pdf file)
Vigh, J. L., J. A. Knaff, and W. H. Schubert, 2012: A climatology of hurricane eye formation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1405-1426, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00108.1.* (pdf file of article, pdf of supplement)
Musgrave, K. D., R. K. Taft, J. L. Vigh, B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert, 2012: Time evolution of the intensity and size of tropical cyclones. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 4, M08001, 15 pp., https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS000104. (pdf file)
Vigh, J. L. and W. H. Schubert, 2009: Rapid development of the tropical cyclone warm core. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3335-3350, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3092.1.* (pdf file)
Schubert,W. H., C.M. Rozoff, J. L. Vigh, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin, 2007: On the distribution of subsidence in the hurricane eye. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 595-605, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49. (pdf file)
Vigh, J., S. R. Fulton, M. DeMaria, and W. H. Schubert, 2003: Evaluation of a multigrid barotropic tropical cyclone track model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1629-1636, https://doi.org/10.1175/2551.1.* (pdf file)

Correspondence Arising from Refereed Publications

Note: Sometimes correspondence arising undergoes the normal full peer review process. In other cases, the editor may review the correspondence. The extent of review will be indicated after each correspondence item (if known).

Correspondence arising from: Stern, D. P., J. Vigh, D. Nolan, and F. Zhang, 2015: Revisiting the relationship between eyewall contraction and intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 1283-1306, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0261.1. (pdf file)

Kieu, C.,D-L. Zhang, 2017: On the contraction of the radius of maximum winds in tropical cyclones: Some comments. J. Atmos. Sci., J. Atmos. Sci., 74,4265-4274, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0011.1. (pdf file, not peer-reviewed)
Stern, D. P., J. L. Vigh, D. S. Nolan, and F. Zhang, 2017: Reply to "Comments on `Revisiting the relationship between eyewall contraction and intensification'". J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 4275-4286, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0120.1. (pdf file, not peer-reviewed)

Non-refereed Works

Thesis and Dissertation

Vigh, J. L., 2010a: Formation of the hurricane eye. Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, 538 pp. [Available in the official graduate school format (best for printing) or a single-spaced format with hyperlinks (best for viewing onscreen)].
Vigh, J. L., 2004: Forecasting of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using a Kilo-Member Ensemble. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, 174 pp. (pdf file)

Technical Reports

Chavas, D. R. and J. L. Vigh, 2015: QSCAT-R+: The QuikSCAT Tropical Cyclone Radial Profile Dataset: Wind radii and radial profiles of wind and rain for tropical cyclones globally, 1999-2009. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-513+STR, 25 pp, doi:10.5065/D6J67DZ4. (pdf file)
Vigh, J., 2015: VDM+: The Enhanced Vortex Message Dataset: Structure, Intensity, and Environmental Parameters from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-517+STR, 72 pp, doi:10.5065/D6PR7T26. (pdf file)
Vigh, J. L., 2014: Development of an HWRF Diagnostics Module to Diagnose Intensity and Structure Using Synthetic Flight Paths through Tropical Cyclones. Final Report to the Development Testbed Center Visitor Program, 44 pp., doi:10.13140/2.1.1587.9683. (pdf file)

Workshop Proceedings

Vigh, J. L., H. Jiang, Y.-H. Huang, Y. Miyamoto, R. Oyama, Q. Li, E. Hendricks, K. Menelaou, C. Slocum, K. L. Corbosiero, M. Bell, Y. Wang, J. Xu, O. Bousquet, R. Smith, R. Coronel, and J. D. Kepert, 2018: Subtopic 3.1. Intensity Change: Internal Processes. Report for the Ninth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones IWTC-IX, World Meteorological Organization, Honolulu, Hawaii, United States, 73 pp. (pdf file)
Hart, R., S. Abarca, M. Bell, D. Chavas, J. Cossuth, A. Hazleton, Y-H. Huang, Y. Li, Y. Moon, Y. V. Rama Rao, M. Sawada, D. Stern, D. Stovern, and J. Vigh, 2014: Subtopic 4.1. Structure and Structure Change Processes. Report for the Eighth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones IWTC-VIII, World Meteorological Organization, Jeju Island, South Korea, 46 pp., doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1498.2887. (pdf file)
Fogarty, C., F. Zhang, J. L. Vigh, V. S. Tallapragada, E. Scherer, J. Poterjoy, J. Callaghan, T. Jie, G. Lackmann, J. Keller, M. Guishard, D.-L. Zhang, and M.-J. Yang, 2014: Subtopic 4.3. Structure Change Forecasting. Report for the Eighth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones IWTC-VIII, World Meteorological Organization, Jeju Island, South Korea, 30 pp., doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2071.7280. (pdf file)
Ritchie, E. A., M. Nguyen, P. Otto, G. Tripoli, J. Vigh, 2010: Inner core impacts. Subtopic 1.2. Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity Change. Report for the Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones IWTC-VII, World Meteorological Organization, La Réunion, France, 14 pp., doi:10.13140/2.1.1825.8247. (pdf file)

User's Guides

Adriaansen, D., M. Win-Gildenmeister, J. Frimel, J. Prestopnik, J. Halley Gotway, T. Jensen, J. Vigh, C. Kalb, G. McCabe, and H. Fisher, 2018: The METplus Version 2.0 User's Guide. Developmental Testbed Center. Available at: https://github.com/NCAR/METplus/releases. 85 pp. (pdf file)

Non-refereed Journal Contributions (e.g. solicited pieces, workshop summaries, meeting summaries, or essays):

Emanuel, K., P. Caroff, S. Delgado, C. Guard, M. Guishard, C. Hennon, J. Knaff, K. R. Knapp, J. Kossin, C. Schreck, C. Velden, and J. Vigh, 2018: On the desirability and feasibility of a global reanalysis of tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 427-429, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0226.1. (pdf file, not peer-reviewed)
Vigh, J., 2006: Hurricane eye formation remains unexplained. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1314-1315 (solicited piece for meeting summary).

SOARS Summer Research Reports

Vigh. J., 2000. A fuzzy logic system for predicting hurricane intensity in the eastern North Pacific. Unpublished manuscript. Science Research Mentor: Kevin Petty. (pdf file)
Vigh, J., 1999. Diagnosing sources of error in the cloud parameterizations of the NCAR Climate Community Model. Unpublished manuscript. Science Research Mentor: Joel Norris. (pdf file - doesn't include figures)

Class Papers

Vigh, J., 2001: Mechanisms by which the atmosphere adjusts to an extremely large explosive event. Class paper for Mesoscale Meteorology (AT 735, Dr. Richard Johnson), Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University. (pdf file)

Newsletter Articles

Vigh, J., 2011: "SOARS and ASP: Coming Full Circle". NCAR Fellows Newsletter (April 2011), 3 pp. (pdf file)
Vigh, J., 2011: "Predicting tropical cyclones: Meeting summary of the Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII), La Réunion, France, 2010". NCAR Fellows Newsletter (January 2011), 3 pp. (pdf file)

Conferences, Seminars, Other Presentations

Conference Papers, Posters, and Presentations

Vigh, J. L., C. M. Rozoff, B. Lazzaro, E. A. Hendricks, M. DeMaria, D. J. Gagne II, M. K. Biswas, P. A. Kucera, 2023: Using global ensembles to assess spatially varying probabilities of tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Fifth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones, AMS Annual Meeting, Session 12 - Tropical cyclone intensity and structure (IV), Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 12.2. [pdf of presentation given 11 January 2023; abstract.]
Vigh, J. L., C. M. Rozoff, E. A. Hendricks, M. DeMaria, D. J. Gagne II, M. K. Biswas, P. A. Kucera, 2022: Improving predictions of tropical cyclone rapid intensification through ensemble post processing. 35th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Session 11A: NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) III, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 11A.5. [pdf of presentation given 11 May 2022; abstract.]
Musgrave, K. D., P. A. Kucera, R. DeMaria,J. L. Vigh, T. L. Jensen, and B. C. Zachry, 2022: Conversion of model large-scale environmental diagnostics for tropical cyclones into the Model Environmental Tools - Tropical Cyclone (MET-TC) verification package. 35th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Joint Poster Session 1, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 37.
Stern, D. P., J. D. Doyle, and J. L. Vigh, 2022: When does tropical cyclone rapid intensification begin? 35th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Joint Poster Session 2, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 74.
Vigh, J. L., D. J. Smith, D. T. Hahn, J. Lin, A. Bol, D. O. Prevatt, D. B. Roueche, J. M. Collins, B. R. Ellingwood, G. Nain, J. E. Rovins, K. Emanuel, T. Ross-Lazarov, P. Mozumder, S. F. Pilkington, S. J. Weaver, G. Wong-Parodi, L. Myers, A. A. Merdjanoff, P. A. Kucera, C. Wang, T. Kloetzke, S. Joslyn, E. A. Holland, B. Brown, Y. P. Sheng, F. Tormos-Aponte, C. M. Appendini Albrechtsen, R. G. Goldhammer, H. Greatrex, M. Moulton, J. M. Done, E. A. Hendricks, C. M. Rozoff, J. J. Alland, M. Ge, C. Arthur, 2021: Updates on the Hurricane Risk Calculator: App capabilities, risk messaging, and pilot testing. Extended Abstract (pdf file), 34th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Session 9B Interdisciplinary research to improve the hurricane forecasting-warning-response system: Past, current, and future foci, virtual conference, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 9B.8. [Recorded homework presentation given 12 May 2021; pdf of presentation.]
Vigh, J. L., C. M. Rozoff, E. A. Hendricks, J. Lin, K. Emanuel, D. J. Gagne II, I. C. MacDaniel, P. A. Kucera, M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, and R. Rios-Berrios, 2023: A Generalized Rapid Intensification Prediction Framework. 34th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Session 4B - Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) and Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) III, virtual conference, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 4B.5. [recorded presentation given 10 May 2021; pdf of presentation.; pdf of handout summary]
Vigh, J.L., D.J. Smith, B.R. Ellingwood, J. Lin, D.O. Prevatt, D. Roueche, B.G. Brown, D.T. Hahn, J.M. Collins, J.M. Done, G. Wong-Parodi, P.A. Kucera, C. Wang, J.J. Alland, T. Kloetzke, C.M. Rozoff, E.A. Hendricks, A.A. Merdjanoff, C. Arthur, M. Ge, Y. Peter Sheng, K. Emanuel, S.J. Weaver, J. Rovins, P. Mozumder, S. Joslyn, A. Bol, and T. Ross-Lazarov, 2020: The Hurricane Risk Calculator: Working toward Enhancing Our Nation's Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to Hurricanes through Probabilistic Risk Frameworks for Evacuation Decision Support. Extended Abstract (pdf file), Eighth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation's Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events, Session 5 Hurricane Studies and Other Tropical Programmatic Achievements, Boston, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 5.5. [Recorded presentation given 15 January 2020; pdf of presentation.]
Vigh, J. L., D. Hahn, D. Smith, J. Lin, and A. Bol, 2020: The Hurricane Risk Calculator: Providing Location-Based Wind Risk Outputs for Residential Structure Damage and Habitability. HiWeather Workshop, virtual conference, World Meteorological Organization, presented 02 December 2020.
Vigh, J., T. Jensen, T. Onsager, N. Maruyama, J. Steenburgh, D. Fuller-Rowell, J. Wang, M. Codrescu, T. Fuller-Rowell, 2021: Developing a Space Weather Verification System Using METplus. 18th Conference on Space Weather, Session 5 - Innovations and Advances in Operational Space Weather Forecasting, virtual meeting, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 5.5, homework video recorded by Jonathan Vigh, lightning summary presented by Tara Jensen on 12 January 2021.
Vigh, J., T. Onsager, T. Jensen, R., N. Maruyama, F. Centinello, D. Fuller-Rowell, M. Codrescu, J. Wang, T. Fuller-Rowell, B. Brown, J. Halley Gotway, T. Burek, G. McCabe, 2020: Developing a Space Weather Verification System Using METplus. 2020 International Workshop on Verification Methods, online workshop, WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research, presented 17 November 2020.
Vigh, J. L., 2020: Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project: Team 1: Tropical Cyclone Data Collection and Sharing. WMO WWRP EXOTICCA / TLFDP / UDPRAFT Tri-Part Workshop, virtual conference, World Meteorological Organization, presented 24 Nov 2020.
Emanuel, K. E., J. L. Vigh, J. Lin, C. M. Rozoff, C. M. Rozoff, E. A. Hendricks, M. Biswas, I. MacDaniel, M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, C. Sampson, 2020: New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Annual Meeting, virtual conference, NOAA HFIP Program, presented 19 Nov 2020.
Vigh, J. L., C. Arthur, J. Done, M. Ge, C. Wang, T. Kloetzke, C. M. Rozoff, B. Brown, B. Ellingwood: 2018: The Hurricane Risk Calculator: Translating Potential Wind Impacts for Coastal and Inland Residents. Extended Abstract (pdf file), 33rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Poster Session 21: Hazard Communication, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 203, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33416.72965. [pdf of poster presented 19 April 2018].
Vigh, J. L., K. A. Emanuel, M. K. Biswas, E. A. Hendricks, and C. M. Rozoff: 2018: Exploring the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification. Oral Presentation, 33rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Session 12C: Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV: Axisymmetric Dynamics, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 12C.1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23507.68645. [Recorded presentation given 19 April 2018; pdf of presentation].
Vigh, J. L., C. A., Ammann, J. A. Lee, and P. Naveau, 2017: The NCAR Climate Risk Management Engine (CRMe). Oral Presentation, 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice, AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 12SOCIETY 3.5, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12010.93127. [Recorded presentation given 24 January 2017 (presented by Jared A. Lee); pdf of presentation].
Vigh, J. L., C. A., Ammann, J. A. Lee, 2016: An Efficient Workflow Environment to Support the Collaborative Development of Actionable Climate Information Using the NCAR Climate risk Management Engine (CRMe). Poster, AGU Fall Meeting, Session A131I Useful and Usable Data: What Makes Climate Science Actionable, San Francisco, California, Amer. Geophys. Union, A13I-0400, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28381.82400. [pdf of poster].
Vigh, J. L., E. Gilleland, C. L. Williams, D. R. Chavas, N. M. Dorst, J. Done, G. Holland, and B. G. Brown: 2016: A New Historical Database of Tropical Cyclone Position, Intensity, and Size Parameters Optimized for Wind Risk Modeling. Extended Abstract (pdf file), 32nd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 12C.2, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3720.5361. [Recorded presentation given 20 April 2016; pdf of presentation].
Vigh, J. L., C. Kieu, V. Tallapragada, L. R. Bernardet, and E. W. Uhlhorn, 2014: Use of Synthetic Profiles to Diagnose Simulated Tropical Cyclones in Regional Hurricane Models. Extended Abstract (pdf file), 31st Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 16D.6. [Recorded presentation given 04 May 2014].
Vigh, J. L., C. M. Ammann, R. B. Rood, J. J. Barsugli, G. Guentchev, 2013: A Computationally Efficient Platform To Examine the Efficacy of Regional Downscaling Methods. Abstract, 2013 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Geophys. Union, Abstract GC12C-04. [Presented by Jonathan Vigh 09 December 2013 (pptx file, abstract text)].
Vigh, J. L., P. Johnsen, M. Straka, T. Galarneau, E. Uhlhorn, A. Norton, N. M. Dorst, F. Marks, Jr., and M. Shapiro, 2013: Evaluation of the Simulated Structure of Hurricane Sandy Using Synthetic Flight Paths, Abstract, 16th Cyclone Workshop, Sainte-Adèle, Quebec, Canada. [Presented by Jonathan Vigh 23 Sep 2013 (pptx file - 550 MB, abstract text)].
Vigh, J. L. and C. M. Rozoff, 2012: Impact of inner core tropical cyclone structure on the potential for rapid intensification. Extended Abstract (pdf file), 30th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 8B.2. [Recorded presentation given 18 April 2012]
Stern, D., J. L. Vigh, D. S. Nolan, and F. Zhang, 2012: Revisiting the Relationship Between Eyewall Contraction and Intensification. Poster (pdf file), 30th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 2.51. [Poster presented by Daniel Stern 18 April 2012].
Frisius, T., D. Schönemann, and J. L. Vigh, 2012: The impact of gradient wind imbalance on potential intensity of tropical cyclones. Poster (pdf file), 30th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 2.51. [Poster presented by Jonathan Vigh 18 April 2012].
Holland, G. J. and J. L. Vigh, 2011: Targeting as a mode of science communication: principles, issues, and a practical example. Poster (pdf file), AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Geophys. Union, Abstract ED33B-0786, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10195.58403. [Poster presented by Greg Holland 07 Dec 2011]
Vigh, J. L., 2010: Structure and intensity changes during hurricane eye formation. Extended Abstract (pdf file), 29th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 8B.1. [Recorded presentation given 12 May 2010]
Vigh, J. L. and W. H. Schubert, 2008: The role of inertial stability in the rapid development of the tropical cyclone warm core. Extended Abstract (pdf file), 28th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 17C.1. [Recorded presentation given 2 May 2008]
Vigh, J., 2006: Formation of the hurricane eye. Extended Abstract (pdf file), 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 1B.6. [Recorded presentation given 24 Apr 2006]
Vigh, J., 2004: Evaluation of a kilo-member ensemble for track forecasting. Preprints (pdf file), 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 160-161. [Recorded presentation given 5 May 2004]
Vigh, J., 2002: Track forecasting of 2001 Atlantic tropical cyclones using a kilo-member ensemble. Preprints (pdf file), 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 212-213. [ppt file for presentation given 30 Apr 2002]

Seminars

11 Jun 2018: Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment: Past, Present, Future. Instituto de Ingeniería, Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (Engineering Institute, Laboratory of Engineering and Coastal Processes, National Autonomous University of Mexico), Sisal, Mexico. [pdf]
20 Feb 2014: Tropical Cyclone Eye Formation: Observations of Structure and Intensity Change. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taiwan. [ppt file]
22 Jun 2011: Hurricane eye formation: observations of structure and intensity change. Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Germany. [ppt file]
29 Jan 2010: Formation of the hurricane eye. Doctoral Defense, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO. [ppt file]
16 Apr 2004: Forecasting of Atlantic tropical cyclones using a kilo-member ensemble. Masters Defense, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO. [ppt file]

Datasets and Products

I have developed several extensive research-grade datasets based on aircraft observations in tropical cyclones and have collaborated on another dataset involving satellite-based scatterometry. Additionally, I have also developed some climate data products. I also maintain a site that provides real-time information about current tropical cyclones. For the tropical cyclone data products, please follow the links in the citations below, or visit the Tropical Cyclone Data Project, to learn more about these datasets and download the data.

The Enhanced Vortex Data Message Dataset (VDM+)

   Vigh, J. L., 2015: VDM+: The Enhanced Vortex Data Message Dataset (Version 1.100). Tropical Cyclone Data 
             Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, 
             Colorado. [Available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D61Z42GH.] Accessed* dd mmm yyyy.

where * dd mmm yyyy is the date which you last accessed the dataset (e.g., 23 Nov 2015).

The QuikSCAT Tropical Cyclone Radial Structure Dataset (QSCAT-R)

   Chavas, D. R. and J. L. Vigh, 2015: QSCAT-R: The QuikSCAT Tropical Cyclone Radial Structure Dataset 
             (Version 1.0). Tropical Cyclone Data Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research 
             Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. [Available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D65B00J3.] 
             Accessed* dd mmm yyyy.

where * dd mmm yyyy is the date which you last accessed the dataset (e.g., 23 Dec 2015).

The Extended Flight Level Dataset for Tropical Cyclones (FLIGHT+)

   Vigh, J. L., N. M. Dorst, C. L. Williams, D. P. Stern, and E. W. Uhlhorn, B. W. Klotz, J. Martinez,  
             H. E. Willoughby, F. D. Marks, Jr., D. R. Chavas, 2018: FLIGHT+: The Extended Flight Level Dataset  
             for Tropical Cyclones (Version 1.3). Tropical Cyclone Data Project, National Center for  
             Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. 
             [Available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6WS8R93.] Accessed* dd mmm yyyy.

where * dd mmm yyyy is the date which you last accessed the dataset (e.g., 20 Apr 2016).

The Tropical Cyclone Observations-Based Structure (TC-OBS) Database

   Vigh, J. L., E. Gilleland, C. L. Williams, D. R. Chavas, N. M. Dorst, 2018: TC-OBS: The Tropical Cyclone 
             Observations-Based Structure Database (version 0.42, an alpha-level release). Tropical Cyclone 
             Data Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, 
             Colorado. [Available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6BC3X95.] 
	     Accessed* dd mmm yyyy.

where * dd mmm yyyy is the date which you last accessed the dataset (e.g., 09 Feb 2018).

Real-time Products

I also maintain and develop the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (TCGP), a real-time web site which aggregates and visualizes model guidance for tropical cyclones around the world. This site is unique in that it attempts to aggregate all publicly-available tropical guidance guidance from numerical weather prediction centers arond the word, as well as experimental prediction aids being developed researchers. The site includes a real-time data feed in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Format (ATCF), as well as extensive documentation.

Climate Products

I am also the developer for the Climate Risk Management engine (CRMe), a high efficient and extensible platform for processing climate data into application-oriented indicators. To view the thousands of output datasets that are generated, I developed the CRMe Viewer, a Javascript- and jQuery-based tool for rapidly browsing the extensive CRMe data collection. For more about CRMe, please visit the CRMe web site.

Mentoring and Outreach

Student Mentoring

I have had the opportunity of mentoring several great students in various capacities, including through the Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS) Program, through the Advanced Study Program Graduate Visitor Program, and through serving on the thesis committee of Masters student from the University of the South Pacific.

Diamilet Betancourt, SOARS Program, 2010, served as a scientific co-mentor (together with Dr. Shuyi Chen, Univ. of Miami)
Daria Schönemann (Univ. of Hamburg, Germany), ASP Graduate Visitor Program, 2011, collaborated with Daria and her advisor, Dr. Thomas Frisius (Univ. of Hamburg, Germany)
Alick Haruhiru (University of the South Pacific), co-supervised his Masters research during a 9-month visit to NCAR (together with James Done and Cindy Bruyère; Research Advisor: Elisabeth Holland, Univ. of the South Pacific)
Jonathan Martinez, SOARS Program, 2013, served as a scientific co-mentor (together with Dr. Michael Bell, Univ. of Hawaii)

Scientific Outreach

I occasionally receive questions from students working on class projects. These students have ranged from 5th grade all the way through high school. If the question is within my area of expertise, I try to provide helpful and in-depth answers. I am also available to talk with students who are contemplating careers in atmospheric science.

News

2022 highlights

The METplus Team at NCAR/RAL receives the 2022 UCAR Technical Achievement Award

METplus Team (NCAR/RAL): Daniel Adriaansen, David Albo, Mrinal Biswas, Barbara Brown, Randy Bullock, Tatiana Burek, Hank Fisher, Eric Gilleland, Lisa Goodrich, John Halley Gotway, Michelle Harrold, Tracy Hertneky, Tara Jensen, Christina Kalb, Seth Linden, Will Mayfield, George McCabe, Kathryn Newman, John Opatz, Julie Prestopnik, Howard Soh, Jonathan Vigh, Minna Win-Gildenmeister, Jamie Wolff.

2021 highlights

The HurricaneRiskCalculator® web app was publicly released! We are seeking the public's help to pilot test this resource over the coming year. For more information, see the NCAR/UCAR press release. To join the pilot test, please go to: https://wxrisk.io.

2019 highlights

Jonathan Vigh and Caspar Ammann win 1st place in the U-Innovate Pitchfest Contest

Caspar Amman (left) and Jonathan Vigh (right)

The UCAR Exchange (previously the UCAR Foundation) hosted UCAR's first-ever "U-Innovate Pitchfest". This contest is designed to spur competition within UCAR/NCAR to bring new technology and innovations. For the initial step, contestents submitted an 8-slide PowerPoint presentation. From these, 8 teams were selected to make an 8-minute pitch to a 3 judge panel that includes UCAR Exchange Board members and local entrepreneurs. The contest was held Friday, Apr 26, 2019.

Dr. Vigh's and Dr. Ammann's pitch was about commercializing RAL's climate risk research. The pitch was well received by the judges and they won 1st place!

The Pitchfest winners receive cash prizes:

1st place - $2,500
2nd place - $1,500
1st place - $800

In addition, the 1st and 2nd place winners receive up to 25 hours of paid time to work on commercialization of their idea. All three winners can access mentoring from local entrepreneurs.

2018 highlights

MIT and NCAR awarded grant to study extreme hurricane intensification

In Sep 2018, MIT and NCAR were awarded a 2-year grant to study extreme hurricane intensification. The $339,571 award was made by the NOAA Office of Science and Technology via the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP). This project, entitled "New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification", seeks to use advanced data fusion techniques to combine the demonstrated ability of a simple dynamical model to capture extreme rapid intensification, with the ability of a more advanced dynamical model to simulate inner core dynamical processes and the wider environment of the storm. This project will use state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to accomplish this. A major goal is to produce probabilistic output that can be used to drive new risk-decision frameworks. The project will also result in important updates and upgrades to FLIGHT+, a research-grade dataset of high resolution flight level data taken by aircraft in hurricanes. FLIGHT+ will be extended to cover 2016 - 2019 hurricane seasons. Work is underway to also create a version of the dataset that will provide these high-quality data in real-time to support prediction efforts.

The project team includes: Dr. Kerry Emanuel (MIT), who is leading the overall project, Dr. Jonathan Vigh (NCAR) who is leading the NCAR side of the project, Dr. Christopher Rozoff (NCAR), Dr. David John Gagne (NCAR), Dr. Eric Hendricks (NCAR), and Mr. Jonathan Lin (MIT graduate student).

2014 highlights

Dr. Vigh visits National Taiwan University

In February 2014, Dr. Vigh visited the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Taiwan University. During this visit, he presented a seminar, gave a class lecture, and visited Taiwan's National Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR). His seminar was entitled "Tropical Cyclone Eye Formation: Observations of Structure and Intensity Change" [ppt file].

2011 highlights

Dr. Vigh releases the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project

The Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project is a web site that offers real-time data and plots of tropical cyclone forecast models to the public. Phase I was released August 14, 2011 and includes visualizations of TC forecast aids for the North Atlantic, Northeast Pacific, and Central Pacific basins.

TCGP has been highlighted in several articles at NCAR:

Dr. Vigh visits the University of Hamburg

In June 2011, Dr. Vigh visited the Meteorologisches Institut at the Universität Hamburg to begin a collaboration with Dr. Thomas Frisius and his PhD student, Daria Schönemann. During this visit, he presented a seminar to the institute, entitled "Hurricane Eye Formation: Observations of Structure and Intensity Change" [ppt file].

Dr. Vigh highlighted in a couple articles at NCAR/UCAR

SOARS and ASP: Coming Full Circle (feature article for NCAR Fellows Newsletter, Apr 2011).

Meeting summary of the Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII), La Reunion, France, 2010 (feature article for NCAR Fellows Newsletter, Jan 2011).

2010 highlights

Dr. Vigh finishes his PhD

The dissertation is now available:

Vigh, J. L., 2010a: Formation of the hurricane eye. Ph.D. dissertation, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, 538 pp. [Available in the official graduate school format (best for printing) or a single-spaced format with hyperlinks (best for viewing onscreen).]

Collaboration Tools for the Hurricane Risk Calculator

Overview of the Collaboration Tools

This page contains instructions and tips for joining and using the collaborative tools which have been set up for collective of researchers working on the Hurricane Risk Calculator project. These tools include a Google Group to facilitate e-mail discussions with the entire project team, and a Google-managed Shared Drive, which allow us to share project-relevant documents and collaboratively edit Google Docs and Sheets (Google's equivalent of Excel).

Please note that Google services are blocked in certain countries (e.g., China). If this affects you, or you have any other trouble following the instructions below, please contact Jonathan Vigh (E-mail: jvigh@ucar.edu, Tel: +1 (303) 497-8205.)

Joining the Google Group for group email conversations

It is very easy to be added to the Google Group to receive group e-mails, because in most cases you can be added directly no matter what your e-mail address is. To be added, simply send a request to Jonathan Vigh (E-mail: jvigh@ucar.edu).

Joining the Shared Drive

Getting onto the Google-managed Shared Drive is a bit more tricky because you must have a Google Account and this must be associated with whatever e-mail address you want to join from. If your institutional e-mail address is managed by Google, then you are good to go. You should be able to simply accept the invitation to join the Shared Drive when it is sent. If using the web interface for the Google Group or Shared Drive, simply make sure that you are signed into your Google Account in the browser you are using.

If your institutional e-mail address is not managed by Google, you have several options.

Option 1 (preferred): Associate your institutional e-mail address with a Google Account that you own (or create)

The benefit of this option is that all notifications from shared documents will go to your institutional e-mail address rather than your private Gmail address. Also, your contributions to shared documents will appear as being made using your institutional e-mail. This protects your private Gmail address and helps the team to know who is making what edits/comments. In most cases, this will be the best option.

If you have a private Gmail e-mail account, then you already have a Google Account that you can use. If you don't have a Google Account, you can create one by following the instructions at the following link: https://accounts.google.com/signup/v2/webcreateaccount?flowName=GlifWebSignIn&flowEntry=SignUp&nogm=true. There is no cost to do this. Once you have created an account, please continue following the instructions below.

Next, associate your newly created or existing Google Account with your institutional e-mail address by following these instructions: https://support.google.com/accounts/answer/176347?hl%3Den.

Option 2: Request an invitation to join the Shared Drive using your private Gmail address

If for some reason, you do not wish to associate your institutional e-mail address with your Google Account, it is always possible to join using your private Gmail address. Simply request an invitation. The downside of doing this is that all drive notifications (e.g., comments on shared documents) will go to your private Gmail, causing e-mail chaos for those who like their work e-mail to go to their work account, and vice versa for personal e-mail. Also, the team members may not recognize your identity for changes made under your private e-mail address.

Using the Google Group

There are two ways to send a message to the entire group: send an e-mail directly to the group address or use the web interface. Sending a message directly to the group is probably easiest for most people, but if you are starting a new thread, it's best to use the web interface so that you can add the appropriate tags which allow people to see which teams or sub-topics your message is directed to.

Send a message to the group via e-mail

To send a message via e-mail, simply send your message to: ucar-hurricane-risk-calculator-project-team@ucar.edu.

Note: if you are replying to a message and you would like to reply to the entire group, use 'reply-all'. If you would just like to reply to the poster, then just use 'reply'.

Send a message via the web interface

Make sure you are signed in to your Google Account on a tab in the browser you are using, then click the link below: https://groups.google.com/a/ucar.edu/d/forum/ucar-hurricane-risk-calculator-project-team.

Alternatively, you may use the widget below and click 'Sign in to view this group', entering your e-mail address along with the password associated with your Google Account.

Adjusting your membership and e-mail settings

Once you are able to access the Google Group, you may adjust your settings using the 'Membership and e-mail setting button' located just below the 'Search' button in the widget. Here you may change your display name, choose whether link to your Google profile and use your photo in your posts, change which e-mail address messages are delivered to, and adjust your e-mail delivery preference.