Beyond correlation and RMSE: Cutting-edge tools for evaluating predictability. 11 April 2024. Earth System Predictability Across Timescales Workshop. Boulder, CO, U.S.A. (poster presentation: pdf).
Testing for the frequency of "better". 28 November 2023. Joint 38th Session of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE-38) and Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), 27 November to 1 December 2023 (pdf).
A Comparison of Spatial Dissimilarity Measures, DoD Cloud Post Processing and Verification Workshop, 14 September 2023 (pdf).
Statistical hypothesis testing in atmospheric science applications. MMM Happy Hour Seminar, 28 June 2023 (pdf).
Comparative forecast verification: Testing the frequency of better. American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting, 8 - 12 January 2023, Denver, Colorado, U.S.A. (pdf).
extRemes: An R package for statistical extreme-value analysis (EVA). NCAR Earth System Extremes Affinity Group meeting, 7 April 2022 (pdf).
A propinquity model approach to spatial risk level estimation. 1st WMO/WWRP Weather and Society Conference, 2 March 2022 (pdf).
A Spatial Dissimilarity Measure for Comparing Spatial Fields. American Statistical Association (ASA) Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), 8 - 12 August 2021, Online, 12 August 2021 (mp4, Citable URL: http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78g8q4z).
Spatial Forecast Verification. Mathematics of Planet Earth (MPE) Summer School, 21 - 25 June 2021, Online, 24 June 2021 (Citable URL: http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7n019zp).
Geospatial Statistical Methods for Rare Meteorological Events. 3rd Triple-G Colloquium Series – Spring 2021, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, U.S.A. (invited talk, citable URL: http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qr51h8).
A new spatial alignment summary measure for high-resolution gridded forecast verification. RAL Seminar, 18 February 2021, online (Citable URL: http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7h998js).
Spatial Verification: A New Spatial Alignment Error Summary. International Verification Methods Workshop Online (2020-IVMW-O), 16 November 2020 (pdf, citable URL = http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73j3h8h).
Spatial forecast verification: Putting location-based measures to the test with a new set of geometric cases. Co-authors: Gregor Skok, Barb Brown, Barbara Casati, Manfred Dorninger, Marion Mittermaier, Nigel Roberts, and Laurie Wilson. American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusettes, 13 January 2020 (pdf).
Test fields and comparisons for distance-based spatial forecast verification methods. Co-authors: Gregor Skok, Barb Brown, Barbara Casati, Manfred Dorninger, Marion Mittermaier, Nigel Roberts, and Laurie Wilson. Developmental Testbed Center Visitor Project Final Presentation, 12 September 2019 (pdf, Video Recording).
Spatial Extreme-Value Analysis. 29 July 2019. American Statistical Association Joint Statistical Meetings, 27 July to 1 August 2019, Denver, Colorado, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d79p34sx, invited talk).
A spatial propinquity extreme-value model for assessing large-scale process extremes in future climates. STATMOS Workshop on Spatial and Spatio-temporal EVA and Oceanography 2019, National Science Foundation (NSF), San Diego, California, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL: http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7sb48sv, invited talk).
A spatial propinquity extreme-value model for assessing monsoon-type precipitation extremes in future climates. Co-authors: Vitaly Kholodovsky and Xin-Zhong Liang, 29 April 2019, Workshops on Extremal Trends in Weather (WET Weather), 29 April to 2 May 2019, Gregynog, Newtown (Powys), Wales, United Kingdom (OpenSky Citable URL and pdf: http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7tm7f52)
Forecast verification for solar power forecasts. 19 July 2018, The 28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society, 16 - 21 July 2018, Guanajuato, Mexico (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78g8phg, invited talk).
Testing the distance-based spatial forecast verification methods on a new more rigorous set of contrived cases. 7 June 2018, American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 4 - 8 June 2018, Denver, Colorado, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7474dmb).
Verification within complexity: Comparing spatial fields. 25 April 2018. Institute for Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) Forecasting from Complexity Workshop, 23 - 27 April 2018, Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S.A. (invited talk, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d72z188p)
Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison Over Complex Terrain (MesoVICT) project. 12 April 2018, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A., (http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7bk1g3m).
Extreme value analysis with the R package extRemes. 28 August 2017, Environmental Risk Modeling and Extreme Events Workshop, 28 - 31 August 2017, Montréal, Québec, Canada (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d71v5hf0, invited talk).
Mesoscale Spatial Forecast Verification Over Complex Terrain. 2 August 2017, American Statistical Association (ASA) Joint Statistical Meetings 2017, 29 July - 3 August 2017, Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7m047x7).
Spatial Forecast Verification and the Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison over Complex Terrain. 29 July 2017, 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change/24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences/16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, 28 - 29 July 2017, Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70867sc).
Verifying NARCCAP Models for Severe-Storm Environments. 3 March 2017, Statistical Sciences and Operations Research Department, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d71c1znq).
Statistical Applications for Severe Storm Environments. 17 February 2017, Università degli Studi di Torino, Turin, Italy (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7542qcf)
Evaluating NARCCAP models for severe storm environment variables. 24 January 2017, 97th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, 22 - 26 January 2017, Seattle, Washington, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70v8fks)
Back to topTowards finding trends in extreme values of precipitation: A preliminary Analysis. 24 October 2016, STATMOS Workshop on Climate Extremes, 23 - 25 October 2016, State College, Pennsylvania, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73n253s, invited talk)
Evaluating Severe-Storm Environment Variables from the North American Climate Change Assessment Program Climate Models. 17 October 2016, Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Department, University of Colorado, Denver, Colorado, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d77d2wtq).
The spatial prediction comparison test. 6 October 2016, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7gx4d8v).
A new characterization in the spatial verification framework for average distance false alarms and misses. 3 October, 2016. 2016 SPECS General Assembly, 3 - 4 October 2016, Exeter, United Kingdom (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7c53njf).
Capitalizing on the asymmetry of the Mean Error Distance. 22 September 2016. 2nd MesoVICT Workshop, 21 - 23 September, Bologna, Italy (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7rf5wqh).
SpatialVx. 21 September 2016. 2nd MesoVICT Workshop, 21 - 23 September, Bologna, Italy (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7rj4m47).
Evaluating Climate Models. 16 September 2016. 16th EMS Annual Meeting and 11th European Conference on Applied Climatology, 12 - 16 September 2016, Trieste, Italy (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7ms3vdh).
Evaluating Climate Models. 1 August 2016. American Statistical Association (ASA) 2016 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), 31 July to 4 August 2016, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7xs5x1z).
Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Overview. American Statistical Association (ASA) Co/Wy Chapter Spring Annual Meeting, 15 April 2016, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7gf0w2m).
Evaluation of weather and climate forecasts: A 2016 perspective. 96th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting, 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 14 January 2016, New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7q241r4, invited talk).
Testing the tests: A look at size and power for hypothesis tests of competing forecasts. 96th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting, 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 13 January 2016, New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7tt4sg5, invited talk).
Back to topWhich forecast is better? 10 November 2015, Big Data & Environment Workshop, 10 - 13 November 2015, Buenos Aires, Argentina (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7m61mtc, invited talk).
A new verification method for assessing competing forecast performance with timing errors. 10 September 2015, 15th EMS Annual Meeting and 12th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), 7 - 11 September 2015, Sofia, Bulgaria (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70k27w9).
Severe Storm Environments and Extreme Value Analysis. 15 June 2015, 9th International Extreme Value Analysis Conference, 15 - 19 June 2015, Ann Arbor, Michigan (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7cv4h2s).
Spatial forecast verification methods overview. WRF Tutorial/MET Tutorial, 3 February 2015, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7q81cc8).
Conditional extreme value analysis for severe storm environments. University of Colorado, Department of Applied Mathematics colloquium seminar, 23 January 2015, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7v12430).
Back to topA spatial prediction comparison test for competing models. RAL Retreat, 8 December 2014, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (pdf).
Advanced Climate and Regional Model Validation for Societal Applications. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, 11, EMS2014-608-1, 9 October 2014, 14th European Meteorological Society / 10th European Climate Applications Conference (ECAC), Prague, Czech Republic, 6 - 11 October 2014. (pdf)
Accounting for Location Errors with the Spatial Prediction Comparison Test. 2 October 2014, MesoVICT Kick-off Meeting, Vienna, Austria, 2 - 3 October 2014 (OpenSky Citable URL, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d71v5d8h).
What We Learned from the Spatial Forecast Verification Inter-Comparison Project (ICP). 2 October 2014, MesoVICT Kick-off Meeting, Vienna, Austria, 2 - 3 October 2014 (pdf).
Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison over Complex Terrain (MesoVICT) Project. University of Delaware SIAM Chapter seminar, 17 April 2014 (invited talk).
Advanced climate and regional model validation for societal applications. 2014 CESM Societal Dimensions Working Group Meeting, 26 - 27 February 2014, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A., 27 February 2014 (pdf).
Spatial forecast verification methods overview. MET/WRF tutorial, 23 - 24 January 2014, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (pdf).
Back to topTesting competing models on spatial fields. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, GC14B-05, 9 - 13 December 2013, San Francisco, California, U.S.A., 9 December 2013 (invited talk, pdf).
A conditional extreme value model for severe storm environments. International Short Conference on Advances in Extreme Value Analysis and Application to Natural Hazards, 18 - 20 September 2013, Siegen, Germany, 18 September 2013 (invited keynote presentation, pdf).
Evaluating the Usefulness of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods for Developing a Short-term Hydrometeorological Prediction System. 13th European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 11th European Conference on Applied Meteorology (ECAM), 9 - 13 September 2013, Reading, U.K., 10 September 2013 (standing in for Barb Brown, pdf).
Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts. 13th European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 11th European Conference on Applied Meteorology (ECAM), 9 - 13 September 2013, Reading, U.K., 10 September 2013 (pdf).
Extreme Value Analysis and Ventures into Space and Time. Next Generation Climate Data Products Workshop, 15 - 19 July 2013, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A., 15 July 2013 (invited talk, pdf)
The Spatial Prediction Comparison Test. 14th Annual WRF Users' Workshop, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A., 28 June 2013 (invited talk, pdf)
A conditional distribution for severe storm environments. Colorado School of Mines, Applied Mathematics and Statistics Colloquium seminar presentation, 22 February 2013, Golden, Colorado, U.S.A.
A conditional distribution for severe storm environments. CESM UQ Interest Group Meeting, 20 February 2013, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.
Spatial Forecast Verification methods overview. 5 February 2013, 2013 WRF Winter Tutorial and MET Tutorial, 4 - 5 February 2013. (pdf)
Spatial Extreme Value Analysis for Large-Scale Severe Weather Indicators. 3A.3 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 93rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 7 January 2013, Austin, Texas, U.S.A.
Back to topPredicting and evaluating extreme weather events (pdf), 12th Experimental Chaos and Complexity Conference, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 18 May 2012
2012 ASME Verification and Validation Symposium, Spatial Weather Forecast Verification (pdf), 3 May 2012, Planet Hollywood Resort, Las Vegas, Nevada.
Spatial Forecast Verification, WRF User Tutorial, 23 January - 3 February, 2012, Boulder, Colorado, 31 January, 2012 (pdf)
A Field Deformation Approach to Spatio-Temporal Forecast Verification of Gridded Sets. American Meteorological Society 92nd Annual Meeting, 22--26 January 2012, New Orleans, Louisiana, Wednesday, 25 January 2012, 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences (pdf).
Back to topGridded forecast verification. American Statistical Association (ASA) Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), 30 July 2011, Miami Beach, Florida, U.S.A. (pdf).
2011 ASP Colloquium on "Statistical Assessment of Extreme Weather Phenomena under Climate Change", organizing committee. Tutorials on EVA software in R (Presentation Slides, Problem Sets)
Extreme Value Analysis. Guest lecture for the Systems Thinking class at Leeds Business School at the University of Colorado, Boulder, 8 March 2011 (pdf)
Back to topSome extreme value problems in climatology. Extreme events in climate and weather an interdisciplinary workshop (10w5016), Banff Centre, Banff, Alberta, Canada, 22--27 August 2010 (pdf)
2010 Advanced Study Program (ASP) Forecast Verification Colloquium.
Spatial Forecast Verification. 90th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 16-21 January 2010, Atlanta, Georgia, 20 January 2010 (pdf)
Back to topSpatial Forecast Verification. 9th EMS Annual Meeting/9th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), 28 September - 02 October 2009, Toulouse, France (pdf)
Extreme Value Theory, Extreme Temperatures, and demonstration of extRemes. Third Biannual NCAR Workshop on Climate and Health Effects of Heat Waves and Air Pollution. 15 July 2009, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (pdf)
Extreme behavior of large scale indicators for severe weather. Graybill VIII/6th International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. 22-26 June 2009 (pdf)
Spatial Forecast Verification: The Image Warp. The Fourth International Verification Methods Workshop. Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland, 4-10 June 2009 (pdf)
Back to topLarge-scale indicators of severe weather: cape and shear. 2008 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) of the American Statistical Association (ASA): 3-7 August, Denver, Colorado, U.S.A. (pdf)
The 19th TIES Conference, 8-13 June 2008 Kelowna, BC Canada.
Resampling methods for statistical inference: Bootstrap methods. DTC Verification Workshop, NCAR Foothills Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. 16-18 April 2008 (pdf)
Image warping for forecast verification. ICP Spring 2008 Workshop, NCAR Foothills Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. 14-15 April 2008 (pdf)
Back to topMethod for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE): A features-based spatial forecast verification technique (pdf), 26 October 2008, Mathematical Statistics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Extremes and Atmospheric Data. 2007-08 Program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory, Opening workshop, 16-19 September, 2007, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, U.S.A. (invited talk, pdf)
Using WRF output in the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Project (ICP). 8-th WRF Users' Workshop. 11 - 15 June 2007, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (pdf)
2007 WRF Verification Toolkit Workshop, 21 - 23 February, 2007, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.
Planning Meeting for the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Project (ICP), NCAR Foothills Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 20 February, 2007.
Spatial forecast verification inter-comparison project (ICP). Third International Verification Methods Workshop, 29 January - 2 February, 2007, Reading, U.K. (pdf)
Extreme Value Analysis of global reanalysis data. American Meteorological Society (AMS) 87-th Annual Meeting, 14-18 January, 2007, San Antonio, Texas, U.S.A., 16th Conference on Applied Climatology (pdf)
Back to topAnalyzing the extreme behavior of large-scale meteorlogical variables found to have influence on severe storms and tornadic events using global reanalysis data. 2006 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) of the American Statistical Association (ASA): Statistics for an uncertain world: Meeting global challenges, 6-10 August, 2006, Seattle, Washington (pdf)
86th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting, 29 January - 2 February, 2006, Atlanta, Georgia.
The Extremes Toolkit: Weather and Climate Applications of Extreme Value Statistics. 4th Conference on Extreme Value Analysis: Probabilistic and Statistical Models and their Applications, 15 - 19 August, 2005, Gothenburg, Sweden (pdf, invited talk).
2005 Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Using Our Discipline to Enhance Human Welfare, 7 - 11 August, 2005, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
International Verification Methods Workshop, 15 - 17 Sep., 2004, Montreal, Québec, Canada.
Optimizing METAR Network Design for Verification of Cloud Ceiling Height and Visibility Forecasts. 2004 joint meeting of The Fifteenth Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society and The Sixth International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 28 June - 1 July, 2004, Portland, Maine (contributed talk/paper).
Spatial models for the distribution of extremes. Graybill Conference 2004, Spatial Statistics: Agricultural, Ecological, and Environmental Applications, 16 - 18 June, 2004, Fort Collins, Colorado (contributed talk).
extRemes. R users conference (useR!2004), 20 - 22 May, 2004, Vienna, Austria (contributed talk).
Improving forecast verification through network design. 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 84th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), 10 - 15 January, 2004, Seattle, Washington. (contributed talk/paper).
Back to top2003 Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Statistics: A bridge to discovery and knowledge, 3 - 7 August, 2003, San Francisco, California.
Statistical Models for Monitoring and Regulating Ground-level Ozone. 1st Intl. Conf. on Environmental Statistics and Health, 16 - 18 July 2003, Santiago de Compostela, Spain (contributed poster).
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